Kaplan 2020: Scaling Laws and Their Limits

In 2020, OpenAI proposed a power-law relationship between model size and data volume, which led many teams toward a simple idea: bigger models, less data. Two years later, Chinchilla revised that picture with a compute-optimal view, showing that data volume mattered far more than many people had assumed. This matters if you’re deciding whether the next gain should come from more GPUs, a larger parameter count, or a larger corpus. The history of scaling laws is not just academic. It changes how you think about training efficiency, model selection, and where your cost structure really sits.